One of the prevailing theories in sociology and criminal science is the theory of “broken windows” developed by George Kelling and James Wilson. The theory states that if a window in a building is broken and for a time is left unrepaired, all the rest of the windows will soon be broken. The point is that one unrepaired broken window is a signal that no one cares and so breaking more windows cost nothing and may even be more fun.
Of course, windows are not the only indicators. These could be broken light bulbs, dark s
treets, graffiti and vandals, and even potholed roads and bridges. As these are left un-attended and unrepaired, the perception that no one cares also continue to increase. The effects: increasing crimes as well as skyrocketing distrust in the government.
In the Bicol Region, though, the continuing attention given by the local governments in the aftermath of last year's calamities has almost stabilized the increase of crimes. If records are to be believed, the volume of recorded cases even lowered by 12% for the period of January to May this year compared with the same period last year. This is because the Bicolanos felt that there are still people who cares and hence, applying the golden rule, the harms are minimized as possible. Exception was the election period from March to May where the recorded cases are at the peak. For March, a total of 167 cases are recorded; for April, 180 cases; and for May, 196 cases. A greater number of these are recorded in Masbate and that includes the shooting of some members of the Abapo Clan.
But while the Region V figures are at a decline, the pictures aren't rosy in other areas. Northern Luzon recorded a 20% increase in crime volume followed by Southern Tagalog with 15% and Metro Manila with 6%. Extrapolating it with election results, these are the areas with notable vote for the opposition candidates both in 2004 and 2007 national elections. Intentionally or not, these are also the areas with lesser government budget for social services per person validating, in a way, the idea that crime increases when people don't feel the concern of the government.
Of course, the broken windows theory may not be limited in the study of crime increase. It may also be used as a lens in analyzing government administrations. In the case of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, for instance, one of every four Filipinos according to the Social Weather Stations (SWS) expected that life will be rosier when she took the presidential seat in 2001. But then, the opposite happened as poverty ratings soared from 59% in March 2001 to 66% in the next quarter of the same year. A lull occured, though as the May 2004 elections drew near. Money was released as part of the campaign, fertilizers allegedly flowed (which later became a scandal), and Philhealth cards bearing the face of Arroyo were distributed. This resulted to the plummeting of poverty to 46% in June 2004 only to increase again to 57% in May 2005, and peaking at 59% in June last year. Again, because of the 2007 elections, those who considered themselves poor fell to 51% in the September of 2006 then moved by two notches at 53% by February 2007.
In simple terms, Arroyo failed the expectations. For this, her ratings dropped from 24% in March 2001 to 12% in August 2004 to negative 6% in the suceeding two months of that same year. Up to the present, her satisfaction ratings wallowed in the negative and never had any single chance to go up. Her nightmare months were May 2005 and December 2005 having negative 33% and negative 30%, respectively. As of June 2007, she was sitting on negative 3%.
Worse, the failed expectations also increased mass demonstrations against her. These were heightened by the Hello, Garci! scandal, and lately, by undetered corruption in the government. Pulse Asia's “2007 Ulat ng Bayan”, for instance, revealed that 45% of the Filipinos believed that the Arroyo Administration is the most corrupt as compared with 31% who said it is the Marcos Administration.
Third, the failed expectations also led to a strong dissatisfaction with democracy. Recent surveys show that one in every two Filipinos are not satisfied with how democracy works. For this, they are opting that the administration be replaced. As to the manner of effecting the replacement as well as to the question of who will replace, they are still divided. Members of the progressive movements prefer a transitional revolutionary government – an idea being dismissed by centrists. Others prefer a constitutional means such as succession. But then, division is again very high for many do not like Vice President Noli De Castro while Chief Justice Reynato Puno, a common choice, is not amenable to the idea.
Because of these disagreements over the details, deadlocks occur and Arroyo remains a president – a lameduck president as many call her. And because the deadlocks cannot contain the increasing dissatisfaction with the administration, many start to romaticize the violent means such as military uprising or coup d' etat. This is being supported by survey results which show that about 40% now favor coup d' etat as opposed to 20% two years ago. All of these started from a broken window.
Latest reports show, however, that Arroyo is also trying to cure her ailing presidency. Her focus is now on economics as well as a closer ties with the local government officials who are the frontliners to the citizenry. The problem: the pictures of economic statistics doesn't seem to touch base with the people particularly the masa which composes more than 60% of the Filipinos. Many still feel hungry and a greater number remains poor. Likewise, the method of reaching out to the local officials appear shady as her operators think everything is money. Thus, the Malacanang payoffs which led the Panlilio and Abante exposes and the restlessness in the PNP and the armed forces who feel underpaid for risking their lives for the sake of peace.
It is undeniable that the problems have become more complicated and the theory of broken windows may be too simple to serve as an explanation. But isn't it true that, quoting an adage, “A stitch in time saves nine”?
No comments:
Post a Comment