Erap's new blunders for the New Year

By trying to stay in the limelight, former president Joseph “Erap” Estrada issued pronouncements last Sunday that forged a sword awaiting to further divide the opposition and raised a hammer to totally disintegrate his own credibility. Are these his new year's gifts to Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to whom he owes his liberty or it just happened because his public relations guru has lost a magic touch?

One of Estrada's pronouncements is the publication of his autobiography. He promised to write a book on his exploits as a movie icon and an influential political figure including his life during the days of his ouster up to the time he became a detainee. The book will also feature exposés on graft and corruption and name some public officials who committed such crime.

But while the book is welcomed to understand his version of the EDSA II, many are curious with regards the chapter on graft and corruption. Will he be man enough to face the consequences of his exposés or is he just cooking something to rattle some public officials whom he can later pull by the nose? These, though, remain to be seen but predictions favor more the blackmail angle rather than the exposition of the truth. First and foremost, Estrada is afraid of getting detained so it is most likely that he will fold down when threats of libel mount. Consider his tacit admission of being a plunderer than continually denying the charge and be detained in Bilibid.

Second, power meters show that Estrada's political grip is on the decline. He was convicted of a crime; he lost his face by admitting, instead of legally battling, the charges against him; he is drastically losing his millions because the government started confiscating his properties particularly those involved in the plunder case; and, reports that he threw his hat in favor of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo during the 2004 elections are already leaking. Thus, many are thinking that the chapter on corruption and corrupt officials are just to draw the rattled officials on his side as he possess aces against them.

In a sense, the book is intended not only as a reaffirmation of Erap the action hero but also as a “hook book”. Not unless he already gained guts or, at least, Mrs. Arroyo's support by using the exposés in “cleaning” the present administration – a move beneficial to both parties for their image-building purposes. But if this will be the case, a serious setback awaits the ousted president – a validation of his alleged deals and questionable political relationship with Arroyo.

The “hook book” and the declining political grip is also manifested in Estrada's public invitation to Vice President Noli De Castro to the united opposition (UNO) and be its standeard bearer come the 2010 presidential elections. Said pronouncement stirred a large portion of the members of the opposition who are also eyeing Mayor Jejomar Binay and Senator Panfilo Lacson to the presidential race. The list does not even include yet the factions favoring Senators Loren Legarda, Chiz Escudero and Manny Villar.

Worse, the agitation caused by the pronouncement can already be heard publicly. The most vocal is Lacson who said that “the Jeep ni Erap is already full so why still hitch De Castro?”. Even civil society organizations (CSOs) sympathetic to UNO also expressed their worries against the statement. These are being manifested in the reports that a greater number these organizations are now starting to severe ties with the opposition. It is to be noted that the CSO's have an axe to grind against De Castro as the vice president did not support the EDSA 4 by agreeing to succeed Mrs. Arroyo.

The statements of Estrada has also created additional cleavages within the opposition. For instance, there is already a debate going on in the opposition grapevine with regards the loyalty of the former president. Some are thinking that Estrada has already swayed in favor of the administration as taking De Castro would mean having a weaker standard bearer for the 2010. Taking De Castro would also mean ignoring the members who remained loyal to the opposition despite the pressures from Malacanang. These include Binay who clung to UNO despite the charges imputed against him. Others also also take cues from the statements of Estrada immediately after he was released from house arrest last year. Estrada not only expressed his gratitude for Arroyo but even asked the Filipinos to support her.

But whether or not the claims that Estrada now supports the administration remains to be validated. Even then, his new year's message has caused some blunders that further eroded his credibility.##

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