De Castro: Misreading the Surveys

The surveys of the Social Weather Stations (SWS) show that the support for Vice President Noli De Castro's 2010 presidential bid is already taking off. From 25% in the third quarter of 2007, the figure rose to 30% in just two months. Does this mean that De Castro is already the sure successor of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in the presidential seat?

Even before the 2004 elections, De Castro is already a "voters' favorite", an effect of his golden days in the media as a newsreader and anchorman. He fared well in the 2004 vice presidential elections and even generated vote figures higher than Arroyo. During the Gloriagate scandals, his satisfaction ratings remained positive while the administration as a whole was wallowing in an all time low rating. And, while Arroyo was already being bombarded with the calls to resign, a greater portion were hoping that De Castro take the presidential seat.

Indeed, the support for De Castro remained intact and, if the December survey is to be believed, he is already a sure winner in the 2010 presidential race. But, is he?

According to De Castro, the survey results could be because of his dedication to work. In simple terms, he is interpreting the results based on the retrospective voting theory. Which is dangerous. In his occupancy of the Office of the Vice President, he has not shown much. During Arroyo's travels, the presidential rein either remains with the Chief Executive or with Eduardo Ermita, the Executive Secretary. As a housing czar, he was not able to propose policies that will minimize, if not eradicate, homelessness. The lowering of the rates in housing loans has not attracted house buyers either as the primary needs remain to be centered on the food in the table. Similarly, the move to clean the North Rail has just displaced the squatters to other settlements. In a sense, De Castro could not claim "performance and dedication" as the major ingredients for his being a choice in the 2010 elections.

These being so, what lens should De Castro use to read the surveys?

If De Castro is to note, his indecisiveness during the Gloriagate Scandal is among the primary factors why the "Oust Gloria" clamors did not prosper. Many were looking not just for a replacement but also for a face. The idea of the transitional revolutionary government is not attractive then not because it is almost impossible but because it is unique. And, in the history of the Philippines, a face of a leader is always important. This behavior can be explained best by analyzing the religion of the Filipinos. Almost 80% of the Filipinos are Catholics not because they strictly adhere to Catholicism but because Catholicism is the only religion that offers icons and symbols. These icons and symbols are what makes them feel closer to God. Otherwise, they could have succumbed to Protestantism or Islam if political power in, or length of existence over, the country are the bases for choosing the religious belief.

As De Castro failed to give a cue on the leadership issue, the calls on Arroyo's ouster mellowed down. And as many find frustrations in the Arroyo Administration, hopes are rising for a new leader come 2010. This, in a way, is a response to De Castro's message of obedience and loyalty to the Constitution. But as De Castro remains steadfast to his silence particularly on the scandals haunting the Arroyo Administration, many might consider him as lacking the necessary balls to lead the government. If this happens, the Vice President's ratings might also fizzle out the way Raul Roco's pre-election ratings vanished.

What, then, are the bases for saying that Filipinos look prospectively and not retrospectively?

First, we have Cory Aquino then claimed to be a mere housewife. She is said to have won the elections despite lacking any track record or performance in public service. Arroyo, too, can be considered as an example when she took over as the acting president in 2001. As a matter of fact, her satisfaction ratings were very high during the first few months of her administration only to dive later as days moved on. Then Senator Francis Pangilinan can also be taken as an example. Certainly, not all who voted for him were fans of Sharon Cuneta. Of course, we have the coup d' etat senators, Gregorio Honasan and Antonio Trillanes. As they were opposing the government, they are also pushing the idea that change could be with them when elected into office.

Even culturally, Filipinos are always forward-looking. During hard times, they always hope that the wheel of life will soon turn and bring them better days.

In a sense, if the SWS surveys will be properly read, it is not a humbling message for De Castro but a challenge to strive more and show off some balls.

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