Framing the Arroyo demise

After the Gloriagate scandal in 2005, another series of demonstrations is pounding the administration of Philippine president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. This time, the root is the ZTE Scandal or the National Broadband Network Project of the Philippine Government. But will the Arroyo Administration crumble this time to give way to another government?

One way to answer this is by using the Joseph Estrada ouster in 2001 as a frame for the possible Arroyo demise. During that time, there were two envelopes at stake one of which was opened while the second was left undisclosed. For this frame we have Rodolfo Jun Lozada to represent "first envelope" and Romulo Neri, the "second envelope". Both are privy to the deals behind the ZTE-national broadband project. Lozada has disclosed what he knew while Neri remains evasive with the case he filed in Court. The burden now lies at the Supreme Court which can cause the opening or continuing closure of the second envelope.

If this is the frame, the best option for Malacanang is to urge Neri to withdraw the case he filed and started talking before the Senate. This is because Filipinos hate suspense and the more Neri is mum on the issue, the more restlessness will occur. The problem, however, is if Neri doesn't know how to lie. But at least, this will mitigate the restlessness being caused by the suspense. And this will further soften the stand of the Catholic Church whose bishops are calling for a moral reformation.

Another way to describe the imbroglio is by viewing the Administration officials, particularly the members of the Cabinet, as mercenaries with Arroyo as the employer. In the very first place, these people work at the mercy of the President and not out of the love for the country. Besides, according to Palace insiders, the Arroyos do not know how to cultivate loyalty. They always think that loyalty can be bought with money. Hence, if these "mercenaries" will see the Administration as a sinking ship, or if they see higher profit elsewhere compared to what they currently receive, they will most likely climb fences and leave Arroyo. Lozada, for instance, tried hard to keep his mouth shut. The problem, the wells went dry in Hongkong so he had to return to the Philippines and eventually spill the beans.

If this frame is to be followed, the best option for the Arroyos is to continually pour the money "the way things used to be in 2005," to quote a source. The problem, wells don't run full 'til eternity. Bleeding more money from corruption will just make matters worst for the ZTE Scandal, along with the others, had taught the people to be more vigilant.

Arroyo and her consultants, however, are reading the events in another frame. They look at the problem as a machination of the opposition and treat it as a minor wound. Thus, the solutions like the three-billion peso anti-corruption fund, the idea of catching the small corrupt officials, and the like. If said frame will not be abandoned, there is no reason to oppose the idea of the first family as rats packing before the 2010.###

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