The Queen in Check: Has GMA still a way out?

Political forecasters predict that Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo will not anymore last in power. Despite the absence of the "show of force in EDSA" last February 25 and the solid stand of the Catholic Bishops on her ouster, analysts see that the direction is already towards the Arroyo demise. But will these predictions hold? And if so, has Mrs. Arroyo still a way out?

Speaking in celebration of the First People Power in the Philippines, President Gloria Arroyo stated that the world will not forgive another EDSA uprising. Defying her words, political and independent forces blew the horn signaling the start of another series of protests three days thereafter.

Indeed, the lacking sight at EDSA on February 25 was seen in Makati under the guise of an inter-faith prayer rally. Ousted President Joseph Estrada even shared the stage with one of the key figures that caused his ouster -- former President Cory Aquino -- while Leftists and anti-imperialists brushed elbows with business leaders and capitalists just to air the call for Mrs. Arroyo to resign and give way in the search for truth. Similarly, religious leaders of various denominations also joined hands for the same cause while politicians hungry of media mileage agreed not to steal a moment to keep the people intact and united.

Second, Vice President Noli De Castro, after years of silence, is now talking of his readiness to succeed Mrs. Arroyo in case she resigns or get ousted. And his lips now sings his support for the search for truth. These, along with the mistakes of Mrs. Arroyo and her camp to control the reins of their statements are no doubt pointing to one thing -- the end of the Arroyo Administration.

But, if the end is near, will there still be a way out?

The answer, of course, is on the affirmative. And this can be done by just balancing properly all interests. The only question is: Is Mrs. Arroyo willing to make some sacrifices?

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Framing the Arroyo demise

After the Gloriagate scandal in 2005, another series of demonstrations is pounding the administration of Philippine president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. This time, the root is the ZTE Scandal or the National Broadband Network Project of the Philippine Government. But will the Arroyo Administration crumble this time to give way to another government?

One way to answer this is by using the Joseph Estrada ouster in 2001 as a frame for the possible Arroyo demise. During that time, there were two envelopes at stake one of which was opened while the second was left undisclosed. For this frame we have Rodolfo Jun Lozada to represent "first envelope" and Romulo Neri, the "second envelope". Both are privy to the deals behind the ZTE-national broadband project. Lozada has disclosed what he knew while Neri remains evasive with the case he filed in Court. The burden now lies at the Supreme Court which can cause the opening or continuing closure of the second envelope.

If this is the frame, the best option for Malacanang is to urge Neri to withdraw the case he filed and started talking before the Senate. This is because Filipinos hate suspense and the more Neri is mum on the issue, the more restlessness will occur. The problem, however, is if Neri doesn't know how to lie. But at least, this will mitigate the restlessness being caused by the suspense. And this will further soften the stand of the Catholic Church whose bishops are calling for a moral reformation.

Another way to describe the imbroglio is by viewing the Administration officials, particularly the members of the Cabinet, as mercenaries with Arroyo as the employer. In the very first place, these people work at the mercy of the President and not out of the love for the country. Besides, according to Palace insiders, the Arroyos do not know how to cultivate loyalty. They always think that loyalty can be bought with money. Hence, if these "mercenaries" will see the Administration as a sinking ship, or if they see higher profit elsewhere compared to what they currently receive, they will most likely climb fences and leave Arroyo. Lozada, for instance, tried hard to keep his mouth shut. The problem, the wells went dry in Hongkong so he had to return to the Philippines and eventually spill the beans.

If this frame is to be followed, the best option for the Arroyos is to continually pour the money "the way things used to be in 2005," to quote a source. The problem, wells don't run full 'til eternity. Bleeding more money from corruption will just make matters worst for the ZTE Scandal, along with the others, had taught the people to be more vigilant.

Arroyo and her consultants, however, are reading the events in another frame. They look at the problem as a machination of the opposition and treat it as a minor wound. Thus, the solutions like the three-billion peso anti-corruption fund, the idea of catching the small corrupt officials, and the like. If said frame will not be abandoned, there is no reason to oppose the idea of the first family as rats packing before the 2010.###

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TIME TO GO: A CALL TO OUR COLLEAGUES IN GOVERNMENT

(A STATEMENT OF FORMER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS)

We are former government officials who have held high positions in the current and previous administrations. Having participated in the highest level of governance up close and personal, we now feel compelled to speak up for our demoralized public servants and arrest the decline of our institutions of governance. In the past, many of us kept quiet, going on about our daily chores, attending to business as usual.

However, over the last few days, we, together with the rest of the country, have seen one man - Jun Lozada - finally decide that he can no longer be part of the massive graft and corruption that permeates this government. His testimony exposed that the corruption in the project he dealt with - the NBN ZTE project - is standard in what he called "dysfunctional government procurement processes."

Clearly, what Jun Lozada knew so terrified the powers-that-be that they unwittingly exposed what Jun called "the dark side of the state" - state-sponsored
terrorism that had been rearing its ugly head in the various disappearances and extra-judicial killings in the past six years - and which almost took him as a victim in a botched kidnapping that the administration has been trying, with little success, to cover up.

In a sense, all Jun Lozada did was to confirm what we already know: Our country is sliding into moral decadence. He also confirmed the systematic destruction of our democratic institutions and the systemic nature of our problems. We have seen this in the wanton disregard of checks-and-balances; abuse of the powers of the President; the cooptation through patronage and outright bribery of the other branches of government; politically sponsored corruption, facilitated, not thwarted, by bureaucratic procedures; the naked use of power and authority through the PNP, PSG, NAIA, among others, to strangle the truth; and the deployment of cabinet, sub-cabinet officials, and the military to obstruct justice and cover up illegal orders and acts.

In the past, for too many times that we were confronted with threats to our democracy and to our moral values, our response was: "What can we do about it? What is our choice? Who will lead us?"

These questions persist but, today, we can no longer stay silent. We can no longer ignore the reality of a government gone wild, wreaking havoc on our rights and institutions in a climate of impunity. We can no longer console ourselves in the strength of the peso, narrowing deficits, and an expanding economy. Even these ephemeral gains have not translated into a better life for the majority of our people, especially the poor.

The future of our country is at stake. Our democratic institutions are under attack. What we stand to lose is the moral fabric of our society.

We call on all government officials - Cabinet Secretaries, Undersecretaries, Heads of Agencies - who know about these anomalous transactions to join the heroic stand of Jun Lozada to come forward and speak out. We call on all those who know about the extrajudicial killings and disappearances to go public and tell the truth. We call on all those who can no longer endure this wrongful governance, with its structures of evil and unmoderated greed: IT IS TIME TO CUT CLEAN! IT IS TIME TO GO! .

Tama na! Sobra na! Panahon na!


Signed by:
1. Florencio Abad (Former Secretary, Department of Education)
2. Tomas Africa, (Former Administrator, National Statistics Office)
3. Rafael Alunan (Former Secretary, Department of Tourism)
4. Tomas Apacible (Former Commissioner, Bureau of Customs)
5. Senen Bacani (Former Secretary, Department of Agriculture)
6. Angelito Banayo (Former Secretary, Political Affairs)
7. Romeo Bernardo (Former Undersecretary, Department of Finance)
8. Gerardo Bulatao (Former Undersecretary, Department of Agrarian Reform)
9. Clifford Burkley (Former Undersecretary, Department of Social Welfare and
Development)
10. Ramon Cardenas (Former Head, Presidential Management Staff)
11. Jose Cuisia (Former Governor, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas)
12. Sostenes Campillo (Former Undersecretary, Department of Tourism)
13. Karina Constantino-David (Former Chair, Civil Service Commission)
14. Elfren Cruz (Former Head, Presidential Management Staff)
15. Isagani Cruz (Former Undersecretary, Department of Education)
16. Teresita Quintos Deles (Former Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process)
17. Benjamin Diokno (Former Secretary, Department of Budget and Management)
18. Quintin Doromal Sr. (Former Commissioner, Philippine Commission on Good Governance)
19. Franklin Drilon (Former Executive Secretary)
20. Narcisa Escaler (Former Ambassador to the United Nations)
21. Jesus Estanislao (Former Secretary, Department of Finance)
22. Fulgencio Factoran Jr. (Former Secretary, Department of Environment and Natural
Resources)
23. Victoria Garchitorena (Former Head, Presidential Management Staff)
24. Ernesto Garilao (Former Secretary, Department of Agrarian Reform)
25. Peter Garrucho (Former Executive Secretary)
26. Jose Luis Gascon (Former Undersecretary, Department of Education)
27. Marietta Goco (Former Chair, Presidential Commission to Fight Poverty)
28. Jose Antonio Gonzalez (Former Minister, Ministry of Tourism)
29. Milwilda Guevarra (Former Undersecretary, Department of Finance)
30. Cielito Habito (Former Secretary-General, National Economic Development Authority)
31. Edilberto de Jesus Jr. (Former Secretary, Department of Education)
32. Philip Ella Juico (Former Secretary, Department of Agrarian Reform)
33. Antonio La Viña (Former Undersecretary, Department of Environment and Natural
Resources)
34. Bienvenido Laguesma (Former Secretary, Department of Labor and Employment)
35. Lina Laigo (Former Secretary, Department of Social Welfare and Development)
36. Ernest Leung (Former Secretary, Department of Finance)
37. Josefina Lichauco (Former Secretary, Department of Transportation and
Communications)
38. Narzalina Lim (Former Secretary, Department of Tourism)
39. Juan Miguel Luz (Former Undersecretary, Department of Education)
40. Felipe Medalla (Former Secretary-General, National Economic Development Authority)
41. Jose Molano Jr. (Former Executive Director, Commission on Filipinos Overseas)
42. Vitaliano Nañagas (Former Chair, Development Bank of the Philippines)
43. Imelda Nicolas (Former Lead Convenor, National Anti-Poverty Commission)
44. Roberto de Ocampo (Former Secretary, Department of Finance)
45. Oscar Orbos (Former Executive Secretary)
46. Ernesto Ordoñez (Former Secretary, Presidential Flagship Programs and Projects)
47. Victor Ordoñez (Former Undersecretary, Department of Education)
48. Cayetano Paderanga (Former Secretary-General, National Economic Development
Authority)
49. Jose Pardo (Former Secretary, Department of Trade and Industry)
50. Vicente Paterno (Former Minister, Ministry of Trade and Industry)
51. Felicito Payumo (Former Chairman, Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority)
52. Pete Prado (Former Secretary, Department of Transportation and Communication)
53. Cesar Purisima (Former Secretary, Department of Finance)
54. Victor Ramos (Former Secretary, Department of Environment and Natural Resources)
55. Amina Rasul (Former Chair, National Youth Commission)
56. Alberto Romualdez Jr. (Former Secretary, Department of Health)
57. Albert del Rosario (Former Ambassador to the United States of America)
58. Francisco del Rosario (Former Chair, Development Bank of the Philippines)
59. Ramon del Rosario (Former Secretary, Department of Finance)
60. Melito Salazar (Former Member of the Monetary Board, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas)
61. Leticia Ramos-Shahani (Former Undersecretary, Department of Foreign Affairs)
62. Cesar Sarino (Former Secretary, Department of Interior and Local Government)
63. Juan Santos (Former Secretary, Department of Trade and Industry)
64. Corazon Juliano-Soliman (Former Secretary, Department of Social Welfare and
Development)
65. Hector Soliman (Former Undersecretary, Department of Agrarian Reform)
66. Mario Taguiwalo (Former Undersecretary, Department of Health)
67. Jaime Galvez Tan (Former Secretary, Department of Health)
68. Wigberto Tañada (Former Commissioner, Bureau of Customs)
69. Rene Villa (Former Secretary, Department of Agrarian Reform)
70. Veronica Villavicencio (Former Lead Convenor, National Anti-Poverty Commission)
71. Deogracias Vistan (Former President, Land Bank of the Philippines)

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From Broken Windows to a Broken Administration

One of the prevailing theories in sociology and criminal science is the theory of “broken windows” developed by George Kelling and James Wilson. The theory states that if a window in a building is broken and for a time is left unrepaired, all the rest of the windows will soon be broken. The point is that one unrepaired broken window is a signal that no one cares and so breaking more windows cost nothing and may even be more fun.

Of course, windows are not the only indicators. These could be broken light bulbs, dark streets, graffiti and vandals, and even potholed roads and bridges. As these are left un-attended and unrepaired, the perception that no one cares also continue to increase. The effects: increasing crimes as well as skyrocketing distrust in the government.

In the Bicol Region, though, the continuing attention given by the local governments in the aftermath of last year's calamities has almost stabilized the increase of crimes. If records are to be believed, the volume of recorded cases even lowered by 12% for the period of January to May this year compared with the same period last year. This is because the Bicolanos felt that there are still people who cares and hence, applying the golden rule, the harms are minimized as possible. Exception was the election period from March to May where the recorded cases are at the peak. For March, a total of 167 cases are recorded; for April, 180 cases; and for May, 196 cases. A greater number of these are recorded in Masbate and that includes the shooting of some members of the Abapo Clan.

But while the Region V figures are at a decline, the pictures aren't rosy in other areas. Northern Luzon recorded a 20% increase in crime volume followed by Southern Tagalog with 15% and Metro Manila with 6%. Extrapolating it with election results, these are the areas with notable vote for the opposition candidates both in 2004 and 2007 national elections. Intentionally or not, these are also the areas with lesser government budget for social services per person validating, in a way, the idea that crime increases when people don't feel the concern of the government.

Of course, the broken windows theory may not be limited in the study of crime increase. It may also be used as a lens in analyzing government administrations. In the case of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, for instance, one of every four Filipinos according to the Social Weather Stations (SWS) expected that life will be rosier when she took the presidential seat in 2001. But then, the opposite happened as poverty ratings soared from 59% in March 2001 to 66% in the next quarter of the same year. A lull occured, though as the May 2004 elections drew near. Money was released as part of the campaign, fertilizers allegedly flowed (which later became a scandal), and Philhealth cards bearing the face of Arroyo were distributed. This resulted to the plummeting of poverty to 46% in June 2004 only to increase again to 57% in May 2005, and peaking at 59% in June last year. Again, because of the 2007 elections, those who considered themselves poor fell to 51% in the September of 2006 then moved by two notches at 53% by February 2007.

In simple terms, Arroyo failed the expectations. For this, her ratings dropped from 24% in March 2001 to 12% in August 2004 to negative 6% in the suceeding two months of that same year. Up to the present, her satisfaction ratings wallowed in the negative and never had any single chance to go up. Her nightmare months were May 2005 and December 2005 having negative 33% and negative 30%, respectively. As of June 2007, she was sitting on negative 3%.

Worse, the failed expectations also increased mass demonstrations against her. These were heightened by the Hello, Garci! scandal, and lately, by undetered corruption in the government. Pulse Asia's “2007 Ulat ng Bayan”, for instance, revealed that 45% of the Filipinos believed that the Arroyo Administration is the most corrupt as compared with 31% who said it is the Marcos Administration.

Third, the failed expectations also led to a strong dissatisfaction with democracy. Recent surveys show that one in every two Filipinos are not satisfied with how democracy works. For this, they are opting that the administration be replaced. As to the manner of effecting the replacement as well as to the question of who will replace, they are still divided. Members of the progressive movements prefer a transitional revolutionary government – an idea being dismissed by centrists. Others prefer a constitutional means such as succession. But then, division is again very high for many do not like Vice President Noli De Castro while Chief Justice Reynato Puno, a common choice, is not amenable to the idea.

Because of these disagreements over the details, deadlocks occur and Arroyo remains a president – a lameduck president as many call her. And because the deadlocks cannot contain the increasing dissatisfaction with the administration, many start to romaticize the violent means such as military uprising or coup d' etat. This is being supported by survey results which show that about 40% now favor coup d' etat as opposed to 20% two years ago. All of these started from a broken window.

Latest reports show, however, that Arroyo is also trying to cure her ailing presidency. Her focus is now on economics as well as a closer ties with the local government officials who are the frontliners to the citizenry. The problem: the pictures of economic statistics doesn't seem to touch base with the people particularly the masa which composes more than 60% of the Filipinos. Many still feel hungry and a greater number remains poor. Likewise, the method of reaching out to the local officials appear shady as her operators think everything is money. Thus, the Malacanang payoffs which led the Panlilio and Abante exposes and the restlessness in the PNP and the armed forces who feel underpaid for risking their lives for the sake of peace.

It is undeniable that the problems have become more complicated and the theory of broken windows may be too simple to serve as an explanation. But isn't it true that, quoting an adage, “A stitch in time saves nine”?

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