Framing the Arroyo demise

After the Gloriagate scandal in 2005, another series of demonstrations is pounding the administration of Philippine president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. This time, the root is the ZTE Scandal or the National Broadband Network Project of the Philippine Government. But will the Arroyo Administration crumble this time to give way to another government?

One way to answer this is by using the Joseph Estrada ouster in 2001 as a frame for the possible Arroyo demise. During that time, there were two envelopes at stake one of which was opened while the second was left undisclosed. For this frame we have Rodolfo Jun Lozada to represent "first envelope" and Romulo Neri, the "second envelope". Both are privy to the deals behind the ZTE-national broadband project. Lozada has disclosed what he knew while Neri remains evasive with the case he filed in Court. The burden now lies at the Supreme Court which can cause the opening or continuing closure of the second envelope.

If this is the frame, the best option for Malacanang is to urge Neri to withdraw the case he filed and started talking before the Senate. This is because Filipinos hate suspense and the more Neri is mum on the issue, the more restlessness will occur. The problem, however, is if Neri doesn't know how to lie. But at least, this will mitigate the restlessness being caused by the suspense. And this will further soften the stand of the Catholic Church whose bishops are calling for a moral reformation.

Another way to describe the imbroglio is by viewing the Administration officials, particularly the members of the Cabinet, as mercenaries with Arroyo as the employer. In the very first place, these people work at the mercy of the President and not out of the love for the country. Besides, according to Palace insiders, the Arroyos do not know how to cultivate loyalty. They always think that loyalty can be bought with money. Hence, if these "mercenaries" will see the Administration as a sinking ship, or if they see higher profit elsewhere compared to what they currently receive, they will most likely climb fences and leave Arroyo. Lozada, for instance, tried hard to keep his mouth shut. The problem, the wells went dry in Hongkong so he had to return to the Philippines and eventually spill the beans.

If this frame is to be followed, the best option for the Arroyos is to continually pour the money "the way things used to be in 2005," to quote a source. The problem, wells don't run full 'til eternity. Bleeding more money from corruption will just make matters worst for the ZTE Scandal, along with the others, had taught the people to be more vigilant.

Arroyo and her consultants, however, are reading the events in another frame. They look at the problem as a machination of the opposition and treat it as a minor wound. Thus, the solutions like the three-billion peso anti-corruption fund, the idea of catching the small corrupt officials, and the like. If said frame will not be abandoned, there is no reason to oppose the idea of the first family as rats packing before the 2010.###

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‘Halika tawagan natin si FG’

(A Transcript of Rodolfo "Jun Lozada's" exposé on the ZTE Broadband Controversy.)

I’d like to start by thanking a lot of people who expressed their sincere sympathy for the family. I’d like to thank them first, so many of them. And in Tagalog, nagpapasalamat po ako sa lahat ng nagpahayag ng pag-aalala sa akin at sa sampu ng aking pamilya.


Ako po’y nagtawag sa pagpupulong na ito upang mabigayan ng liwanag. Madami kasing mga katanungan ang bayan ukol sa proyekto ng NBN-ZTE na ito.

At upang huwag na sanang mapilitan pa yung iba, marami nang mabubuting taong napilitan pang magsinungaling dahil sa akin. Hindi naman sila kasama rito, napipilitan pa silang magsinungaling. Ayokong maging dahilan na magkasala sa Diyos at sa bayan kahit sinoman. Ayoko ho iyon.

Mabigat po sa aking damdamin ito at isipan, ang aking gagawin. Ngunit kailangan kong gawin ito para sa kaunawaan, para maliwanag na ang isipan ng bayang ito na lubhang makaka-apekto doon sa kinabukasan nila.

Ang aking ilalahad na mga salaysay ngayon tungkol sa ZTE-NBN ay yung mga bagay na ako’y may personal na ginampanan, the things that I’m involved with. And I’m going to say this with malice to no one.

Wala ho akong malisya kahit kanino man. Ang sasabihin ko ay kung ano lang ginawa namin, at kung ano ang nangyari.

Introduced to Abalos

To my recollection of events, I’ll start off the first time I was introduced to this project by Secretary Neri, monitored action to Chairman Ben Abalos. I guess if it was not late September, early October I was introduced by Secretary Neri to Chairman Ben Abalos in Wack-Wack together with his entourage sina Ruben Reyes…and the ZTE president Yu Yong and Fan Yang. We had lunch in Wack-Wack wherein we talked about the NBN-ZTE.

I remember that the Secretary told Chairman Abalos to course his project proposal to the proper channel. NEDA received the first copy sometime in October…prepared by…All questions were referred back to Asec Formoso.

When the Secretary gave me a copy for me to review, the first three that really caught my attention, when I was reviewing the financial cost, the financial projection were based on… September 20, 2006 issue wherein they were quoting how much government was spending for telecom expenses…

…So, I told the Abalos group, through their guy Leo San Miguel, that they should revise their proposal. They should fix it and try to avoid the education part of it, because there’s already a cyber-education project.

Abalos wanted $130 million

Sometime in November, that was the time that I also met Joey de Venecia, to see the presentation on a similar project but on a BOT basis. And at that time, the Secretary asked me if the project was appropriate for NBN.

Until we presented the project proposal for the NBN. And the Secretary asked If I think it was appropriate and I said yes, so he encouraged Joey to push through the project development further.

And when the Secretary asked me if there was a synergy between the two projects I said, yes. But both of them were pitching for the same project. The Secretary told me to reconcile the two proponents. And at that point, it was really a good project.

At that point, when the Secretary told me to reconcile the two proponents, I immediately went to work and proposed one tool for the two proponents wherein both of them can achieve both of their objectives. Joey’s objective was to do a BOT with government, which was completely above board, and then Chairman Abalos’s objective was to do a loan, a project on a loan basis.

So the project structure that I proposed was that Joey becomes the lead contracting party to the government, it’s on a BOT basis anyway. And that Abalos, to achieve his objective of supplying, becomes supplier to Joey’s project.

I thought at that point it was already a win-win situation for everyone involved. The government gets its NBN project, Joey gets his BOT project, and then Abalos gets his supply comes up.

So, at one point I got them already to do their own thing. It’s finished. But I guess the trouble started when Chairman Abalos wanted to protect his $130-million… how shall I put this…commission on the project. So dapat daw proteksyonan ‘yong $130 million, (before) we agree that Joey become the main proponent.

'Bubukol po ito'

At that point, I just felt that…it might be a little too big, in the vernacular sabi ko bubukol po ito, sabi ko siguro kalahati pupuwede. But nonetheless I relayed the information to Joey, because it’s going to be Joey’s project anyway.

And Joey’s reaction was really like ballistic, parang he was worried, saan n’ya kukunin itong $130 million na ‘to, because the project cost is $262 million, and Abalos wanted $130 million na komisyon. So sabi ko sa kanila, hindi ko problema ‘yan, that’s your problem.

So at that point, I don’t know if the listener can realize how much money all of these are na pinag-uusapan…$130 million…At that point, I was telling them na problema n’yo na ito basta you make sure you’ll get this thing together because we don’t want another Atong Ang or Chavit Singson scandal to rock this country. I also made it very clear...na basta maayos lang.

ZTE's advances to Abalos

Sometime in December, the ZTE rep, si Yu Yong at saka si Fan Yang, who get quite close to me, along the progress of the work, were already getting frantic and talking to me about developments in the project, because they’d already gave enough advances daw to Chairman Abalos. So, sabi ko sa kanila, the project is moving along, they should not be alarmed.

So, it was also at this point because of Joey’s hesitance to agree on the $130-million commission, that Chairman Abalos started considering doing the project on his own, deretso na siya.

Ang sabi ko ho sa kanya na hindi ho puwedeng de-deretcho kayo, kasi ang kabilin-bilinan ni Secretray Neri, na yun din ata ang utos ng Presidente, na this project can only be done through a BOT basis, hindi puwedeng utang.

'Tawagan natin si FG'

So I was standing firm on that, na hindi talaga pupuwede. At that point, that was the time that Chairman Abalos said, halika, tawagan natin si FG. So, sabi niya, nung tinawagan niya, pare nandito yung taga NEDA sa tabi ko, hindi raw puwedeng i-utang yung project ko.

I cannot hear the voice from the other end, pero sabi n’ya, kung ganyan kayong kausap, and the Chairman continues, kung ganyan kayong kausap, ang hirap n’yo palang kausap, kalimutan n’yo na lang ang usapan natin.

I don’t know what that meant. But the following day, totoo nga, a letter from the Chinese ambassador came addressed to the government, and… with Mike, stating that this is already December.

'Moderate their greed'

You can check this with the records. I’m just doing this through my own recollection. But if you can check sometime December, a letter addressed to Mike yata, came in from the Chinese ambassador saying that there is now money available for a loan, for the NBN project, independent of the cyber-education project.

Kasi yung cyber-education yun ang napag-agree-han na ilo-loan na. Ngayon there’s another loan na naman na puwede na rin yung NBN i-loan, it was sometime early December.

So, I told the Secretary about it, Secretary Neri. And his instruction to me was very clear, sabi n'ya, Jun, you moderate their greed. I was naive to accept that order. I do not know what moderating greed means, but I followed Secretary Neri.

'Pare, okay na kami sa NEDA'

And due to the insistence naman nitong mga taga ZTE that the project gets going, Chairman Abalos invited us sometime on the third week of December, I’m pretty sure of the timing, over dinner in Makati Shang-rila. He asked to invite Joey as well, kasi si FG will be there with us.

Actually the First Gentlemen did not say much, except that Chairman Abalos told him na pare okay na kami nina Joey, ok na kami sa NEDA. (and the FG answered) Ah, ganon, mabuti naman, okay na , okay na.

So, I’m just narrating to you with no malice intended. Whatever that means, kayo na po ang bahalang umano.

And on their trip to China, I did not join them anymore, and I guess Joey can speak omn what happened in China.

Like the North Rail

Sometime in early January naman, Secretray Neri again invited us for lunch with Abalos in Edsa, in Makati-Shangrila in a Chinese restaurant together with Yu Yong and Fan Yang, the ZTE, and the Chinese commercial councilor. At that point, the Chairman again was making the impression that the project is already a go. May be there was parallel trust…because…(but) it was not yet a go.

So there was some negative reaction from the ZTE person, and the Secretary noticed some awkward moments there, and then he immediately ask a leave, and said that he had to go, and asked me to stay behind.

Chairman Abalos and the ZTE guy were in curious exchange of words, because the ZTE people were like demanding from Chairman Abalos that he promised that the ZTE deal will be done on a loan project under the North Rail. I don’t know why they speak about the North Rail. I don’t know why they speak about the North Rail. They keep on mentioning ala North Rail terms loan agreement.

'Alam mo bang…?'

So, that was last meeting I had with the Chairman. And on January 18, I remember the date very well. This is the only date that I can remember because this was the date I said bye to the project.

I was then in Dumaguete in Negros, together with Henry Teves, when Chairman Abalos called me up, to some like early evening, and asked me questions like, “Alam ba ni Neri yung ginagawa mo, (I said) Opo. Alam ba ni Neri yung ginawa mo. Opo. Alam mo bang malapit ako sa military. Opo. Alam mong malapit ako sa intelligence. Opo. Alam mo namang malapit ako…

And then he started cursing. Mura siya nang mura in Tagalog, lahat-lahat. At ang sabi niya, nandito sa akin yung CD lahat ng phone conversations ninyo nina Joey, mga hayop kayo, tina-traydor n’yo ko.

I don’t know what gave him that impression..but the fact, that they said I know the week 17 in ISAPF can do that, which Chairman Abalos and Ruben Reyes are …close to, I was not surprised.

So, I just took with a grain, and then Chairman Abalos ended up…his words with, “Huwag kang magpapakita sa aking hayop ka sa Wack –Wack o sa Mandaluyong at ipapapatay kita."

That’s when all my troubles started. So, I quit the project. I told the Secretary that I don;lt think this project is worth risking my life for. All I did was trying to help the Secretary understand it.

So on February 2007, the executive order was issued. So this is now my personal participation ended and where it ended for the project concept.

From $262M to $329M

In February 2007, an EO was issued by the Office of the President, transferring the telos, the implementing agency to DOTC. And on April, the project… the NBN was approved…at $329 million.

When I quit the project, the project cost was $262 million. So it was approved. I don’t know what happened then. I’m not imputing anything now. But when it was approved, it was already approved at $329 million. And the day after it was approved, the President together with PagCor officials, went to China to witness the signing of the agreement.

This project for me is one transactional example of a dysfunctional government procurement, a systemic dysfunction on how we procure projects. There are other more that have escaped scrutiny, but ganun din ang sistema. And I have agonized over this decision...

Ang dasal ko lang sana maintindihan n’yo yung dusang dinananas ng pamilya ko ngayon. Ang dasal ko lang sana matutunan na natin after nito na ang salitang Pilpino ay hindi lang tumutkoy sa isang pamilya. Ang salitang Pilipino ay tumutukoy sa isang bansa, ang bansang Pilipino. And sometimes, it’s worth taking a risk for this country.

source: http://www.gmanews.tv/story/79634/Transcript-of-Lozadas-expos%E9-Halika-tawagan-natin-si-FG

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From Broken Windows to a Broken Administration

One of the prevailing theories in sociology and criminal science is the theory of “broken windows” developed by George Kelling and James Wilson. The theory states that if a window in a building is broken and for a time is left unrepaired, all the rest of the windows will soon be broken. The point is that one unrepaired broken window is a signal that no one cares and so breaking more windows cost nothing and may even be more fun.

Of course, windows are not the only indicators. These could be broken light bulbs, dark streets, graffiti and vandals, and even potholed roads and bridges. As these are left un-attended and unrepaired, the perception that no one cares also continue to increase. The effects: increasing crimes as well as skyrocketing distrust in the government.

In the Bicol Region, though, the continuing attention given by the local governments in the aftermath of last year's calamities has almost stabilized the increase of crimes. If records are to be believed, the volume of recorded cases even lowered by 12% for the period of January to May this year compared with the same period last year. This is because the Bicolanos felt that there are still people who cares and hence, applying the golden rule, the harms are minimized as possible. Exception was the election period from March to May where the recorded cases are at the peak. For March, a total of 167 cases are recorded; for April, 180 cases; and for May, 196 cases. A greater number of these are recorded in Masbate and that includes the shooting of some members of the Abapo Clan.

But while the Region V figures are at a decline, the pictures aren't rosy in other areas. Northern Luzon recorded a 20% increase in crime volume followed by Southern Tagalog with 15% and Metro Manila with 6%. Extrapolating it with election results, these are the areas with notable vote for the opposition candidates both in 2004 and 2007 national elections. Intentionally or not, these are also the areas with lesser government budget for social services per person validating, in a way, the idea that crime increases when people don't feel the concern of the government.

Of course, the broken windows theory may not be limited in the study of crime increase. It may also be used as a lens in analyzing government administrations. In the case of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, for instance, one of every four Filipinos according to the Social Weather Stations (SWS) expected that life will be rosier when she took the presidential seat in 2001. But then, the opposite happened as poverty ratings soared from 59% in March 2001 to 66% in the next quarter of the same year. A lull occured, though as the May 2004 elections drew near. Money was released as part of the campaign, fertilizers allegedly flowed (which later became a scandal), and Philhealth cards bearing the face of Arroyo were distributed. This resulted to the plummeting of poverty to 46% in June 2004 only to increase again to 57% in May 2005, and peaking at 59% in June last year. Again, because of the 2007 elections, those who considered themselves poor fell to 51% in the September of 2006 then moved by two notches at 53% by February 2007.

In simple terms, Arroyo failed the expectations. For this, her ratings dropped from 24% in March 2001 to 12% in August 2004 to negative 6% in the suceeding two months of that same year. Up to the present, her satisfaction ratings wallowed in the negative and never had any single chance to go up. Her nightmare months were May 2005 and December 2005 having negative 33% and negative 30%, respectively. As of June 2007, she was sitting on negative 3%.

Worse, the failed expectations also increased mass demonstrations against her. These were heightened by the Hello, Garci! scandal, and lately, by undetered corruption in the government. Pulse Asia's “2007 Ulat ng Bayan”, for instance, revealed that 45% of the Filipinos believed that the Arroyo Administration is the most corrupt as compared with 31% who said it is the Marcos Administration.

Third, the failed expectations also led to a strong dissatisfaction with democracy. Recent surveys show that one in every two Filipinos are not satisfied with how democracy works. For this, they are opting that the administration be replaced. As to the manner of effecting the replacement as well as to the question of who will replace, they are still divided. Members of the progressive movements prefer a transitional revolutionary government – an idea being dismissed by centrists. Others prefer a constitutional means such as succession. But then, division is again very high for many do not like Vice President Noli De Castro while Chief Justice Reynato Puno, a common choice, is not amenable to the idea.

Because of these disagreements over the details, deadlocks occur and Arroyo remains a president – a lameduck president as many call her. And because the deadlocks cannot contain the increasing dissatisfaction with the administration, many start to romaticize the violent means such as military uprising or coup d' etat. This is being supported by survey results which show that about 40% now favor coup d' etat as opposed to 20% two years ago. All of these started from a broken window.

Latest reports show, however, that Arroyo is also trying to cure her ailing presidency. Her focus is now on economics as well as a closer ties with the local government officials who are the frontliners to the citizenry. The problem: the pictures of economic statistics doesn't seem to touch base with the people particularly the masa which composes more than 60% of the Filipinos. Many still feel hungry and a greater number remains poor. Likewise, the method of reaching out to the local officials appear shady as her operators think everything is money. Thus, the Malacanang payoffs which led the Panlilio and Abante exposes and the restlessness in the PNP and the armed forces who feel underpaid for risking their lives for the sake of peace.

It is undeniable that the problems have become more complicated and the theory of broken windows may be too simple to serve as an explanation. But isn't it true that, quoting an adage, “A stitch in time saves nine”?

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